Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.0% vs 56.8%). Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 56.0%
Defensive zone
Carter 56.0%
Neutral zone
Carter 56.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 5: Carter 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Carter
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
4
0
Carter
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
56.6% (1,064)
+1.3%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
60.4% (260)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
54.0% (261)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
58.2% (543)
54.9% (801)
Away
55.9% (594)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
57.5%
58.0%
P2
57.1%
56.7%
P3
55.8%
55.4%
OT
68.2%
64.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | OT | 02:41 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 01:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |