Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 75.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 66.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Carter
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Carter
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
56.1% (690)
+3.6%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
64.6% (96)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
45.9% (109)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
58.7% (455)
58.3% (408)
Away
60.0% (483)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
61.3%
57.7%
P2
57.1%
54.8%
P3
59.8%
55.2%
OT
57.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
60.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 14:39 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 19:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 09:24 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |