Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.1% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 62.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 61.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 60.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 6: Carter 1-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Carter
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Carter
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (552)
57.3% (1,073)
-5.1%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
58.5% (258)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (100)
50.7% (225)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 61.4% vs right-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (324)
59.2% (765)
Away
51.2% (422)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
49.8%
55.6%
P2
52.8%
61.0%
P3
51.2%
52.3%
OT
40.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 12:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 12:53 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 09:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |