Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 49.0% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 5: Carter 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (242)
58.6% (841)
-9.0%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
59.9% (207)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (50)
58.1% (148)
-18.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 64.4% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
48.6% (173)
59.8% (594)
Away
48.9% (141)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
52.1%
61.7%
P2
47.8%
56.2%
P3
46.6%
59.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 11:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |