Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +16.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 43.6% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-16.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cogliano 78.3%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 75.8%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 74.3%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Cogliano
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cogliano
Pavelski
Last 7: Cogliano 2-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Cogliano
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Cogliano
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (308)
57.8% (569)
-13.6%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
60.2% (161)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (53)
59.5% (121)
-23.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cogliano is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Cogliano shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Pavelski
Home
50.0% (188)
61.0% (403)
Away
34.3% (198)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Cogliano
Pavelski
P1
44.0%
62.9%
P2
41.3%
56.6%
P3
40.5%
57.1%
OT
44.4%
57.9%
Final 5 min
42.5%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
42.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2012 | 2 | 05:28 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 1 | 00:09 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Jan 4, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |