Scouting Report
Anton Lundell holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 54.4% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 60.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 61.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Lundell
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lundell
Pavelski
Last 5: Lundell 1-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Lundell
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Lundell
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (768)
51.5% (594)
+2.8%
Power Play
65.6% (61)
51.7% (87)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (49)
28.6% (14)
+22.4%
On penalty kill, Lundell has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lundell is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Lundell shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Lundell
Pavelski
Home
57.3% (450)
53.1% (339)
Away
52.3% (428)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Lundell
Pavelski
P1
54.3%
53.8%
P2
58.2%
47.8%
P3
52.0%
50.2%
OT
75.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
60.6%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
54.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 12:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |