Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Coleman wins 37.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.9% vs Pavelski 52.9% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 81.2%
Defensive zone
Coleman 68.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 50.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Coleman
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Coleman
Pavelski
Last 8: Coleman 4-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Coleman
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
2
1
Coleman
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coleman
1
0
Coleman
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (145)
54.0% (730)
-8.5%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
57.1% (156)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (108)
41.7% (103)
-4.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Coleman is 37.6% vs right-shot opponents (125).
Coleman shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Coleman
Pavelski
Home
49.6% (129)
55.2% (458)
Away
33.8% (133)
51.4% (531)
By Period
Coleman
Pavelski
P1
39.5%
54.0%
P2
40.2%
54.5%
P3
45.6%
50.5%
Final 5 min
39.6%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
32.0%▼
45.5%
41.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2018 | 3 | 14:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 10:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 03:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |