Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 52.0%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Richardson wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 50.8% vs Pavelski 51.8% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 60.7%
Defensive zone
Richardson 76.0%
Neutral zone
Richardson 57.3%
Result
Brad Richardson favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Richardson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Richardson
Pavelski
Last 10: Richardson 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
6
Richardson
Pavelski
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richardson
3
1
Richardson
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
5
Richardson
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (107)
53.5% (508)
+1.6%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
51.7% (118)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (38)
41.4% (70)
+0.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Richardson is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Richardson shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (533).
Home / Away
Richardson
Pavelski
Home
56.5% (92)
54.3% (372)
Away
42.9% (56)
49.4% (324)
By Period
Richardson
Pavelski
P1
62.1%
48.7%
P2
46.0%
57.7%
P3
42.5%
50.2%
Final 5 min
60.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
51.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 05:15 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 1 | 15:31 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Brad Richardson |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 09:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 1 | 11:55 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |