Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Point wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 49.5% vs Pavelski 51.8% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 54.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 67.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 59.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Point
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Point
Pavelski
Last 5: Point 3-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
1
0
Point
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Point
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Point
2
1
Point
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (411)
53.5% (508)
-5.3%
Power Play
54.5% (101)
51.7% (118)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
41.4% (70)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Point has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Point is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Point shoots right. Pavelski is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Point
Pavelski
Home
51.1% (268)
54.3% (372)
Away
47.6% (252)
49.4% (324)
By Period
Point
Pavelski
P1
46.4%
48.7%
P2
56.5%
57.7%
P3
45.3%
50.2%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
52.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
49.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| May 7, 2021 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Brayden Point |