Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Point wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 50.7% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 69.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 54.2%
Neutral zone
Point 59.8%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Point
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Point
Pavelski
Last 6: Point 2-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
1
0
Point
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Point
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Point
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (711)
52.3% (560)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.2% (105)
57.5% (113)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
62.5% (16)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Point is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Point shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Point
Pavelski
Home
53.3% (394)
54.2% (360)
Away
48.4% (428)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Point
Pavelski
P1
49.8%
54.5%
P2
53.0%
56.7%
P3
49.6%
50.8%
OT
44.4%
30.8%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
50.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:30 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Point |