Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 17-7 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Point 86.9%
Defensive zone
Point 90.6%
Neutral zone
Point 87.6%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Point
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
17
(24 meetings)
7
17
Point
Pavelski
Last 10: Point 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Point
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
7
Point
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
8
Point
Pavelski
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,183)
53.6% (8,791)
-5.3%
Power Play
53.9% (1,043)
58.2% (2,122)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
50.9% (1,138)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Point is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (2,071).
Point shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Point
Pavelski
Home
49.1% (3,733)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Point
Pavelski
P1
46.8%
53.5%
P2
51.4%
55.2%
P3
48.0%
53.9%
OT
52.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
48.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:30 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| May 7, 2021 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 08:14 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 05:08 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |