Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rowney wins 40.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rowney 49.4% vs Pavelski 52.9% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 70.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 62.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Rowney
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Rowney
Pavelski
Last 7: Rowney 4-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Rowney
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rowney
2
0
Rowney
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rowney
2
0
Rowney
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rowney
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (298)
54.0% (730)
-4.3%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
57.1% (156)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (46)
41.7% (103)
+4.0%
On power play, Rowney has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Rowney is 40.8% vs right-shot opponents (98).
Rowney shoots right. Pavelski is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Home / Away
Rowney
Pavelski
Home
51.0% (143)
55.2% (458)
Away
48.0% (204)
51.4% (531)
By Period
Rowney
Pavelski
P1
49.6%
54.0%
P2
47.7%
54.5%
P3
50.9%
50.5%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
49.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 16:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 1 | 02:47 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 1 | 01:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |