Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 83.1%
Defensive zone
McMichael 84.1%
Neutral zone
McMichael 84.1%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
McMichael
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McMichael
Pavelski
Last 5: McMichael 0-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
McMichael
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
McMichael
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
51.5% (594)
-8.1%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
51.7% (87)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
28.6% (14)
+2.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McMichael is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (281).
McMichael shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pavelski
Home
42.1% (444)
53.1% (339)
Away
42.8% (428)
49.2% (356)
By Period
McMichael
Pavelski
P1
42.5%
53.8%
P2
41.9%
47.8%
P3
42.5%
50.2%
OT
100.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
39.7%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |