Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cozens wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 90.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 80.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 90.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.5%
16.5%
83.5%
Cozens
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Cozens
Pavelski
Last 7: Cozens 6-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
4
1
Cozens
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
0
Cozens
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
52.5% (570)
-6.9%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
54.5% (145)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
44.4% (36)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cozens is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Cozens shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Cozens
Pavelski
Home
43.9% (410)
55.0% (391)
Away
47.2% (430)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Cozens
Pavelski
P1
46.4%
50.8%
P2
41.6%
55.0%
P3
49.4%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:47 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 03:17 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:53 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 06:37 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |