Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 80.7%
Defensive zone
Cozens 81.5%
Neutral zone
Cozens 80.0%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Cozens
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Cozens
Pavelski
Last 9: Cozens 1-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
6
Cozens
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Cozens
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
51.5% (594)
-4.8%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
51.7% (87)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
28.6% (14)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Cozens
Pavelski
Home
46.2% (567)
53.1% (339)
Away
44.9% (579)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Cozens
Pavelski
P1
46.5%
53.8%
P2
46.5%
47.8%
P3
44.2%
50.2%
OT
22.2%
71.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:36 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |