Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.3%). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Thornton 54.3% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 51.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 54.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 51.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Pavelski
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pavelski
Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
53.5% (6,640)
+0.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
57.2% (1,387)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
56.7% (427)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Thornton
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Pavelski
Thornton
P1
53.5%
55.0%
P2
55.2%
53.3%
P3
53.9%
54.4%
OT
52.3%
56.4%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |