Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Larsson 48.1% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 84.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 88.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
Pavelski
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Larsson
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Larsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
1
Pavelski
Larsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
48.4% (258)
+7.3%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
28.6% (7)
+31.4%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
40.0% (20)
+12.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Larsson is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Larsson
Home
59.2% (622)
46.8% (154)
Away
52.6% (584)
48.1% (131)
By Period
Pavelski
Larsson
P1
54.1%
50.5%
P2
56.4%
48.5%
P3
56.4%
43.2%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 14:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 06:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 06:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |