Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Larsson 49.5% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 97.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 74.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 89.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.2%
91.2%
8.8%
Pavelski
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
Pavelski
Larsson
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
11
0
Pavelski
Larsson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
4
Pavelski
Larsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Larsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.5% (4,382)
+3.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
47.7% (153)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
43.8% (714)
+7.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Larsson
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Pavelski
Larsson
P1
53.5%
51.6%
P2
55.2%
49.7%
P3
53.9%
47.2%
OT
52.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 07:34 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 17:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 06:45 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2016 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2016 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 14:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 06:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 06:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |