Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lammikko shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Lammikko 47.9% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 96.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 83.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 93.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.2%
91.2%
8.8%
Pavelski
Lammikko
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Pavelski
Lammikko
Last 8: Pavelski 7-1 Lammikko
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Lammikko
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Lammikko
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Lammikko
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lammikko
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.6% (1,250)
+5.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
59.3% (27)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
37.0% (135)
+13.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lammikko shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Lammikko is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (466).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lammikko
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.0% (688)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.5% (724)
By Period
Pavelski
Lammikko
P1
53.5%
48.6%
P2
55.2%
47.7%
P3
53.9%
46.9%
OT
52.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Lammikko
46.0%▼
51.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:02 | Defensive | Juho Lammikko |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 3 | 12:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 1 | 02:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |