Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.2%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 46 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Duchene 54.1% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 51-49 in 100 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 56.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Pavelski
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
49
-
51
(100 meetings)
49
51
Pavelski
Duchene
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
17
29
Pavelski
Duchene
46 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
23
15
Pavelski
Duchene
38 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
7
Pavelski
Duchene
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
53.9% (10,396)
-0.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
56.9% (1,665)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
49.1% (468)
+1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Duchene
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Pavelski
Duchene
P1
53.5%
54.5%
P2
55.2%
54.5%
P3
53.9%
53.4%
OT
52.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 02:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 10:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 11:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 06:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |