Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 24 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Kadri 48.7% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Kadri leads 38-31 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
Kadri 71.2%
Defensive zone
Kadri 67.2%
Neutral zone
Kadri 71.3%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Pavelski
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
38
(69 meetings)
31
38
Pavelski
Kadri
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
8
16
Pavelski
Kadri
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
17
12
Pavelski
Kadri
29 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
6
10
Pavelski
Kadri
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.2% (12,510)
+5.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
53.0% (1,892)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.0% (293)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Kadri is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (5,319).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kadri
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.1% (7,467)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.1% (7,231)
By Period
Pavelski
Kadri
P1
53.5%
49.2%
P2
55.2%
48.8%
P3
53.9%
48.0%
OT
52.3%
49.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:04 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 09:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 2 | 17:36 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 2 | 15:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 18:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |