Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Dowd 50.8% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 67.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 91.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 72.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Pavelski
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
19
(29 meetings)
10
19
Pavelski
Dowd
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
4
Pavelski
Dowd
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
11
Pavelski
Dowd
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Pavelski
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
52.6% (5,850)
+1.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
56.1% (164)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
43.9% (1,600)
+7.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,600).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Dowd
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.1% (3,753)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.6% (3,862)
By Period
Pavelski
Dowd
P1
53.5%
51.9%
P2
55.2%
50.7%
P3
53.9%
50.1%
OT
52.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 09:23 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 03:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 1 | 09:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |