Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Dowd 53.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Pavelski
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pavelski
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Pavelski
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
55.4% (771)
-2.9%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
57.1% (7)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
45.5% (165)
-1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Pavelski shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Dowd
Home
55.0% (391)
58.2% (462)
Away
49.7% (360)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Pavelski
Dowd
P1
50.8%
55.6%
P2
55.0%
50.5%
P3
52.0%
53.9%
OT
25.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |