Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Dowd 48.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 91.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 80.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 56.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Pavelski
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Pavelski
Dowd
Last 9: Pavelski 5-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
0
Pavelski
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Pavelski
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
49.2% (778)
+2.3%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
58.3% (12)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
44.0% (234)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Dowd
Home
53.1% (339)
46.3% (492)
Away
49.2% (356)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Pavelski
Dowd
P1
53.8%
49.1%
P2
47.8%
48.2%
P3
50.2%
46.9%
OT
71.4%
71.4%
Final 5 min
48.6%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |