Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 53.0%). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Sturm 52.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 76.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 73.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 52.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Pavelski
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Pavelski
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Pavelski
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Pavelski
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Pavelski
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
54.0% (480)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
28.6% (7)
+25.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
50.0% (102)
-5.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sturm
Home
55.0% (391)
54.0% (287)
Away
49.7% (360)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Pavelski
Sturm
P1
50.8%
53.5%
P2
55.0%
51.0%
P3
52.0%
55.1%
OT
25.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 14:23 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2021 | 1 | 04:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |