Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Sturm 55.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 76.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Pavelski
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pavelski
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
56.1% (716)
-3.8%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
67.7% (31)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
51.1% (133)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sturm
Home
54.2% (360)
55.6% (412)
Away
52.6% (329)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Pavelski
Sturm
P1
54.5%
59.6%
P2
56.7%
52.0%
P3
50.8%
55.5%
OT
30.8%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |