Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Acciari 51.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 94.5%
Defensive zone
Acciari 70.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 70.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Pavelski
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Pavelski
Acciari
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
0
Pavelski
Acciari
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Pavelski
Acciari
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
2
4
Pavelski
Acciari
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
53.1% (3,185)
+0.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
50.7% (71)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.8% (999)
+4.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Acciari is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,142).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Acciari
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.4% (2,033)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.8% (2,222)
By Period
Pavelski
Acciari
P1
53.5%
52.1%
P2
55.2%
51.7%
P3
53.9%
51.0%
OT
52.3%
51.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Acciari
54.0%▲
51.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:27 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 08:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 3 | 02:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 10:01 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 03:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:54 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2019 | 2 | 16:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2019 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |