Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bennett on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Bennett 47.1% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Bennett leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Bennett 71.3%
Defensive zone
Bennett 75.8%
Neutral zone
Bennett 75.6%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Pavelski
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
Pavelski
Bennett
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
Pavelski
Bennett
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
2
6
Pavelski
Bennett
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Pavelski
Bennett
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
46.8% (5,533)
+6.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.4% (523)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.7% (247)
+9.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Bennett is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,196).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bennett
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.1% (3,175)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
46.0% (3,128)
By Period
Pavelski
Bennett
P1
53.5%
47.8%
P2
55.2%
46.3%
P3
53.9%
46.9%
OT
52.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
44.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Bennett
50.0%▲
43.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 1 | 15:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 02:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 05:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 2 | 04:59 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 2 | 02:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 2 | 01:57 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 12:49 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |