Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bennett on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Bennett 45.9% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 67.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 70.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Pavelski
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pavelski
Bennett
Last 5: Pavelski 3-2 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
1
2
Pavelski
Bennett
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Bennett
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
44.7% (772)
+6.8%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
56.9% (58)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
42.9% (28)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Bennett has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Bennett is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bennett
Home
53.1% (339)
48.5% (447)
Away
49.2% (356)
42.1% (411)
By Period
Pavelski
Bennett
P1
53.8%
47.1%
P2
47.8%
45.8%
P3
50.2%
42.9%
OT
71.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |