Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 23 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Couturier 52.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 35-33 in 68 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 66.2%
Defensive zone
Couturier 55.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Pavelski
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
33
(68 meetings)
35
33
Pavelski
Couturier
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
15
8
Pavelski
Couturier
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
11
16
Pavelski
Couturier
27 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Pavelski
Couturier
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
52.5% (11,063)
+1.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
59.7% (1,280)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.5% (1,816)
+2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Couturier is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (5,245).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Couturier
Home
56.4% (5,998)
53.4% (7,147)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
51.8% (7,019)
By Period
Pavelski
Couturier
P1
53.5%
52.5%
P2
55.2%
52.6%
P3
53.9%
52.9%
OT
52.3%
49.4%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | OT | 02:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | OT | 01:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 00:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 00:08 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 11:19 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2 | 07:04 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2 | 02:50 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |