Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 24 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Monahan 51.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 61-58 in 119 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 52.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 69.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 58.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Pavelski
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
61
-
58
(119 meetings)
61
58
Pavelski
Monahan
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
22
26
Pavelski
Monahan
48 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
24
23
Pavelski
Monahan
47 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
15
9
Pavelski
Monahan
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.1% (11,356)
+2.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
53.7% (2,580)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.0% (766)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Monahan
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Pavelski
Monahan
P1
53.5%
50.9%
P2
55.2%
51.7%
P3
53.9%
51.0%
OT
52.3%
53.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 13:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:18 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |