Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 53.1%). Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Monahan 52.8% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 50.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 50.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Pavelski
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Pavelski
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Pavelski
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.5% (641)
+1.0%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
62.8% (129)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
33.3% (9)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Monahan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Monahan
Home
55.0% (391)
53.9% (362)
Away
49.7% (360)
52.5% (417)
By Period
Pavelski
Monahan
P1
50.8%
48.0%
P2
55.0%
57.0%
P3
52.0%
54.1%
OT
25.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |