Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Dries shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Dries 49.4% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 87.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 81.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 82.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Pavelski
Dries
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Dries
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Dries
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Dries
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Dries
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Dries
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.5% (544)
+5.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
54.3% (70)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
51.4% (37)
-0.5%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dries shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Dries is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Dries
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.6% (363)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
45.1% (288)
By Period
Pavelski
Dries
P1
53.5%
46.7%
P2
55.2%
51.4%
P3
53.9%
49.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Dries
40.0%▼
49.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Sheldon Dries |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Sheldon Dries |