Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Dries 49.9% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 85.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 74.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 79.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Pavelski
Dries
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Dries
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Dries
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Dries
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Dries
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Dries
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
49.1% (401)
+3.2%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
55.0% (60)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
50.0% (10)
+12.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dries shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Dries is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Dries
Home
54.2% (360)
54.3% (265)
Away
52.6% (329)
44.2% (206)
By Period
Pavelski
Dries
P1
54.5%
45.8%
P2
56.7%
54.3%
P3
50.8%
49.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Dries
40.0%▼
49.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Sheldon Dries |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |