Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 54.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Pavelski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Pavelski
Stamkos
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
4
Pavelski
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
7
Pavelski
Stamkos
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.4% (9,799)
+3.2%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
55.1% (1,725)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
49.7% (825)
+1.2%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stamkos
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Pavelski
Stamkos
P1
53.5%
49.1%
P2
55.2%
52.7%
P3
53.9%
50.9%
OT
52.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 19:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 09:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2015 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 1 | 13:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 1 | 04:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |