Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 56.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Pavelski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pavelski
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
49.3% (789)
+3.2%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
56.9% (181)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
54.1% (98)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Pavelski shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stamkos
Home
55.0% (391)
52.0% (512)
Away
49.7% (360)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Pavelski
Stamkos
P1
50.8%
42.1%
P2
55.0%
56.4%
P3
52.0%
53.7%
OT
25.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.2%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |