Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 66.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 60.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Pavelski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Pavelski
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Pavelski
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
55.9% (499)
-4.4%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
56.3% (126)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
58.3% (12)
-29.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Stamkos is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stamkos
Home
53.1% (339)
55.3% (349)
Away
49.2% (356)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Pavelski
Stamkos
P1
53.8%
57.0%
P2
47.8%
59.2%
P3
50.2%
51.5%
OT
71.4%
55.6%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |