Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.6%). Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Seguin 53.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.0%
Defensive zone
Seguin 64.2%
Neutral zone
Seguin 58.5%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Pavelski
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Pavelski
Seguin
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Seguin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
6
Pavelski
Seguin
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
53.7% (8,071)
-0.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
55.9% (810)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
49.3% (762)
+1.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Seguin
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Pavelski
Seguin
P1
53.5%
52.8%
P2
55.2%
53.3%
P3
53.9%
54.7%
OT
52.3%
54.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2018 | 1 | 15:16 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 16, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 17:43 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 18:27 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 00:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |