Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Jost 40.5% (+14.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 98.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 91.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 96.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 95.3%
95.3%
4.7%
Pavelski
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
5
(17 meetings)
12
5
Pavelski
Jost
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
2
Pavelski
Jost
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
3
Pavelski
Jost
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
41.0% (1,977)
+12.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
34.7% (72)
+23.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
34.9% (249)
+16.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Jost is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (857).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Jost
Home
56.4% (5,998)
42.0% (1,208)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
38.1% (1,090)
By Period
Pavelski
Jost
P1
53.5%
38.5%
P2
55.2%
41.2%
P3
53.9%
40.8%
OT
52.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Jost
40.0%▼
44.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 03:49 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 05:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |