Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +20.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.3% vs Jost 38.0% (+20.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 92.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 88.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Pavelski
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Jost
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Jost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Jost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (474)
32.7% (226)
+21.7%
Power Play
51.9% (104)
36.0% (25)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (74)
50.0% (4)
+2.7%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Pavelski shoots right. Jost is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Jost
Home
54.3% (313)
34.7% (124)
Away
53.4% (339)
32.1% (131)
By Period
Pavelski
Jost
P1
51.0%
29.5%
P2
51.9%
33.0%
P3
58.1%
37.8%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
21.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
33.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 05:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |