Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.8% vs Trocheck 55.4% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Trocheck leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.8%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 66.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.7%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Pavelski
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Pavelski
Trocheck
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Trocheck
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
2
3
Pavelski
Trocheck
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
2
3
Pavelski
Trocheck
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (508)
56.5% (598)
-3.0%
Power Play
51.7% (118)
61.5% (52)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (70)
51.3% (119)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Trocheck has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Pavelski is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Pavelski shoots right. Trocheck is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Trocheck
Home
54.3% (372)
57.4% (376)
Away
49.4% (324)
54.7% (393)
By Period
Pavelski
Trocheck
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
57.7%
60.3%
P3
50.2%
55.1%
OT
44.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 18:20 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 13:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 05:46 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 16:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 13:07 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |