Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Trocheck 55.6% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 52.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 51.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Pavelski
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Pavelski
Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
2
Pavelski
Trocheck
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
55.0% (956)
-2.7%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
59.8% (266)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
56.3% (64)
+6.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. Trocheck is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Trocheck
Home
54.2% (360)
57.7% (673)
Away
52.6% (329)
54.3% (613)
By Period
Pavelski
Trocheck
P1
54.5%
55.4%
P2
56.7%
55.6%
P3
50.8%
56.4%
OT
30.8%
83.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 07:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |