Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Thornton 55.6% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Nelson
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Thornton
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
3
Nelson
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Nelson
Thornton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
55.1% (836)
-13.0%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
60.8% (181)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
56.1% (82)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Nelson shoots left. Thornton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (585).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thornton
Home
43.8% (224)
60.4% (528)
Away
41.0% (227)
52.2% (571)
By Period
Nelson
Thornton
P1
48.1%
58.1%
P2
38.4%
55.3%
P3
39.2%
55.0%
OT
75.0%
55.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 10:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |