Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 58.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.8% vs Thornton 54.1% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 54.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 74.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 62.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Spezza
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Spezza
Thornton
Last 8: Spezza 6-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
0
Spezza
Thornton
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Spezza
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (795)
52.8% (922)
+3.3%
Power Play
56.9% (211)
56.1% (196)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (190)
62.0% (100)
-5.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Spezza shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (327).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thornton
Home
56.6% (532)
54.9% (597)
Away
56.0% (678)
54.0% (643)
By Period
Spezza
Thornton
P1
58.8%
53.0%
P2
59.6%
51.2%
P3
50.4%
57.8%
OT
57.9%
72.7%
Final 5 min
55.6%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2010 | 3 | 12:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 3 | 00:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 1 | 05:55 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |