Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 52.1% vs Thornton 57.4% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 57.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 50.0%
Neutral zone
Carter 52.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Carter
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Carter
Thornton
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Carter
Thornton
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
2
Carter
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
Carter
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (289)
57.0% (540)
-4.1%
Power Play
56.5% (69)
64.0% (111)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
62.0% (50)
-23.5%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Carter is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Carter shoots right. Thornton is 60.1% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Carter
Thornton
Home
56.4% (181)
56.7% (353)
Away
49.3% (203)
60.3% (348)
By Period
Carter
Thornton
P1
56.6%
59.3%
P2
54.0%
60.1%
P3
47.2%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
47.6%
Final 5 min
56.6%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
52.6%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 16, 2013 | OT | 04:37 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 08:25 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |