Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Eller 50.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 16-11 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 50.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 81.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 63.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Thornton
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
16
(27 meetings)
11
16
Thornton
Eller
Last 10: Thornton 3-7 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Thornton
Eller
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
6
Thornton
Eller
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Thornton
Eller
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
51.1% (10,296)
+2.4%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
52.8% (621)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
46.7% (1,751)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
Thornton
Eller
Home
55.8% (4,271)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Thornton
Eller
P1
55.0%
51.2%
P2
53.3%
50.1%
P3
54.4%
50.2%
OT
56.4%
56.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 17:36 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 1 | 04:03 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 01:35 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 15:19 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 15:11 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 06:27 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 19:22 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 16:57 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Lars Eller |