Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Thornton wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 46.2% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 57.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.4%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Thornton
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Thornton
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (161)
45.8% (755)
-2.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
48.3% (60)
+1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Thornton is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Thornton shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Thornton
MacKinnon
Home
41.5% (106)
49.5% (396)
Away
47.8% (69)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Thornton
MacKinnon
P1
50.8%
50.2%
P2
41.0%
43.8%
P3
40.0%
41.4%
Final 5 min
43.8%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2021 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 12, 2021 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |