Joe Thornton vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 22-11 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 89.3%
Defensive zone
Thornton 82.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 90.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Thornton
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
11
(33 meetings)
22
11
Thornton
MacKinnon
Last 10: Thornton 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
6
4
Thornton
MacKinnon
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
3
Thornton
MacKinnon
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
9
4
Thornton
MacKinnon
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
46.1% (11,218)
+7.4%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
53.3% (1,412)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
42.8% (502)
+13.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Thornton
MacKinnon
Home
55.8% (4,271)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Thornton
MacKinnon
P1
55.0%
47.4%
P2
53.3%
46.6%
P3
54.4%
46.1%
OT
56.4%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2021 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 12, 2021 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 19:16 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 10:19 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 1 | 03:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 12:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 19:36 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 04:18 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 3 | 05:57 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 1 | 14:48 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |