Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.4% vs Schmaltz 40.4% (+15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 72.8%
Defensive zone
Thornton 91.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 88.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Thornton
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Thornton
Schmaltz
Last 5: Thornton 5-0 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
0
Thornton
Schmaltz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (638)
37.6% (237)
+14.9%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
32.5% (40)
+24.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (4)
+0.0%
On power play, Thornton has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Thornton is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (236).
Thornton shoots left. Schmaltz is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Thornton
Schmaltz
Home
54.8% (341)
42.6% (129)
Away
50.6% (334)
32.2% (152)
By Period
Thornton
Schmaltz
P1
55.2%
38.8%
P2
56.5%
29.4%
P3
47.1%
42.2%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
37.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 14:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:51 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 04:16 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |