Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Schmaltz 42.4% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 60.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 87.3%
Neutral zone
Thornton 84.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Thornton
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Thornton
Schmaltz
Last 7: Thornton 5-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
1
Thornton
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
41.1% (3,218)
+12.4%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
47.3% (637)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
47.2% (125)
+9.5%
On even strength, Thornton has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,877).
Home / Away
Thornton
Schmaltz
Home
55.8% (4,271)
42.7% (1,978)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
41.8% (2,002)
By Period
Thornton
Schmaltz
P1
55.0%
41.1%
P2
53.3%
42.6%
P3
54.4%
43.0%
OT
56.4%
42.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 14:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:51 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 04:16 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |